The Philippines recorded a sharp contraction in agricultural
and fisheries production in the third quarter of 2026, with output dropping to
its lowest level in 11 years as rising farm input costs, adverse weather
conditions, and declining crop yields weighed on the sector.
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed
that the value of agriculture and fisheries production, measured at constant
2018 prices, declined by 5 percent to ₱389.42 billion from ₱410.04 billion in
the same quarter of 2025.
The latest figure represents one of the sector's weakest
performances since 2015, when production value stood at ₱386.04 billion. It
also marks a reversal from the 3 percent growth recorded in the third quarter
last year and the 2.9 percent expansion posted in the second quarter of 2026.
The contraction underscores the growing pressure on domestic
food production, particularly as the country prepares for the expected effects
of a strong El Niño event.
Crop and fisheries sectors drive overall contraction
The crops subsector accounted for the largest share of the
decline, with production value falling 9.3 percent to ₱197.71 billion from ₱218
billion a year earlier. Representing approximately half of total agricultural
and fisheries output, the subsector remains particularly vulnerable to weather
disruptions and escalating production expenses.
Palay and corn suffered the steepest setbacks, registering
declines of 17.8 percent and 17.4 percent, respectively.
The Department of Agriculture (DA) identified expensive
fertilizers and other farm inputs, alongside flooding brought by the recent
southwest monsoon or habagat, as major factors behind the weakened crop
performance. These conditions disrupted farming activities and influenced
farmers' decisions on planting schedules and production volumes.
Fisheries also posted a significant contraction. Its
production value dropped 8.5 percent to ₱50.86 billion, representing 13.1
percent of the country's total agricultural and fisheries output during the
quarter.
Livestock and poultry provide limited support
Growth in livestock and poultry was insufficient to offset
losses in crops and fisheries, although both subsectors managed to expand.
Poultry production increased 4.9 percent to ₱79.67 billion,
contributing roughly one-fifth of total output. According to the PSA, nearly
all poultry commodities recorded year-on-year growth, with duck eggs being the
exception after posting a 3.7 percent decline.
Livestock production, meanwhile, grew by 1.1 percent to
₱61.17 billion, accounting for approximately 15.7 percent of the sector's
overall value.
The improvement was largely supported by a 46 percent surge
in dairy production and a 1.9 percent increase in hog output.
Despite these gains, the stronger performance of
animal-based commodities could not compensate for the substantial losses in
crop and fisheries production.
For the first nine months of 2026, the value of agricultural
and fisheries output reached approximately ₱1.28 trillion, down 0.6 percent
from around ₱1.29 trillion recorded during the corresponding period last year.
DA prepares ₱62-billion El Niño response program
With another major climate challenge approaching, the DA is
preparing a ₱62-billion intervention program designed to protect agricultural
production and safeguard the livelihoods of farmers and other stakeholders.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said the
initiative would combine technological solutions, innovative farming
approaches, targeted assistance, and coordination among government agencies to
minimize potential damage from El Niño.
The program will adopt a whole-of-government strategy,
recognizing that climate-related agricultural disruptions require coordinated
action beyond the agriculture department alone.
The proposed interventions come as the country faces the
prospect of prolonged dry conditions that could further undermine crop yields,
water availability, and agricultural productivity.
Strong El Niño expected to persist into 2027
The state weather bureau PAGASA has reported that a very
strong El Niño is prevailing over the tropical Pacific, with the climate
phenomenon expected to reach its peak toward the end of 2026.
Its effects could continue across the Philippines through
the first half of 2027, raising concerns about drought conditions and further
disruptions to agricultural activities.
The timing presents an additional challenge for an
agricultural sector already struggling with declining production and elevated
operating expenses. The effectiveness of government preparations, particularly
in ensuring adequate irrigation, timely farm assistance, and access to
essential agricultural resources, will be critical in limiting further losses.
With crop production accounting for the largest portion of the country's agricultural output, protecting farmers from prolonged dry conditions will be essential to stabilizing domestic food supplies and reducing pressure on the country's agricultural economy.
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