El Niño and Rising Costs Threaten Philippine Coffee Production

 

MANILA, Philippines. Philippine coffee production could fall below 30,000 metric tons this year as extreme heat and escalating farm expenses put pressure on growers, according to the Philippine Coffee Board Inc. (PCBI).

The projected decline highlights the growing challenge of sustaining local coffee supplies as changing climate conditions force farmers to reconsider where and how they cultivate their crops.

PCBI chairperson Pacita Juan said rising global temperatures are making some traditional coffee-growing areas less suitable for cultivation. Varieties previously grown in low-lying locations may now require higher elevations to survive, particularly as temperatures exceed the conditions these plants can tolerate.

Arabica coffee faces particular challenges, with Juan noting that areas below 1,300 meters in elevation may be becoming too warm for successful cultivation. Relocating farms to higher ground, however, could add logistical and production difficulties for growers.

To help the industry adapt, the PCBI is encouraging farmers to diversify into coffee varieties that are better equipped to withstand difficult environmental conditions. Liberica, Excelsa and Robusta are among the varieties being promoted for their relative resilience compared with Arabica.

Production expenses present another obstacle. Rising fertilizer prices, particularly for petroleum-based products, are increasing the financial burden on farmers already dealing with unfavorable weather. The PCBI is advocating organic agriculture and encouraging growers to produce their own farm inputs as a way to reduce costs and dependence on expensive commercial fertilizers.

The industry group is also working with local government units and the Department of Agriculture to secure fertilizer assistance for coffee farmers.

The latest outlook comes after domestic coffee production recorded growth in 2025. Philippine Statistics Authority data showed output reached 35,650 metric tons, up 11.5 percent from 31,980 metric tons in 2024. However, the anticipated production shortfall this year could reverse some of that progress.

Despite the importance of coffee to local consumers and businesses, domestic farms supply only about 40 percent of the country's total demand. The Philippines therefore continues to rely heavily on imported beans to fill the gap.

The industry's ability to maintain production will depend increasingly on climate adaptation, affordable farm inputs and the adoption of suitable coffee varieties. Without improvements in these areas, weather-related losses and higher cultivation costs could further widen the gap between domestic supply and consumer demand.