Chicken Farmgate Prices Sink as Oversupply and Weak Consumer Demand Pressure Poultry Industry

 

The Philippine poultry sector is facing mounting strain as farmgate prices for chicken continue to weaken under the combined weight of oversupply and slowing consumer demand. Industry leaders warn that the situation may deteriorate further in the coming weeks, raising concerns over the sustainability of local chicken production.

According to the United Broiler Raisers Association or UBRA, producers are now contending with a market imbalance where output continues to rise even as household purchasing power softens. UBRA president Elias Jose Inciong explained that production itself remains stable despite seasonal humidity that typically complicates poultry operations during this period.

Instead, the core issue lies in consumption. Filipino consumers have become more cautious with spending as elevated fuel prices ripple through household budgets. The prolonged conflict in the Middle East has intensified pressure on global oil markets, driving transportation and living costs higher. As families tighten expenses, demand for chicken has slowed significantly.

For poultry growers, the problem resembles a warehouse steadily filling while fewer buyers arrive at the door. Supply continues moving through the production chain, but market absorption has weakened. The result is a steady decline in farmgate prices that leaves producers earning less even as operational expenses climb.

Inciong stressed that chicken farmers are already absorbing financial losses. The cost of raising chicks has increased, yet selling prices remain depressed. This imbalance threatens to discourage growers from sustaining operations, particularly smaller producers with limited financial buffers.

The concern extends beyond immediate profitability. Inciong noted that if local raisers reduce production, the country may become increasingly dependent on imported hatchlings, which have become more expensive because of currency exchange pressures. Such a shift could expose the domestic poultry industry to greater vulnerability in the long term.

Industry projections also indicate further downside risks. UBRA warned that farmgate prices could slide to as low as P70 per kilogram once poultry harvest volumes peak toward the end of May. Similar price collapses have occurred before, severely squeezing producer margins and destabilizing supply chains.

Despite the weak pricing environment, national chicken production continues to expand. Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed local chicken output reached 585,470 metric tons during the first quarter of 2026. That figure reflects a 5.8 percent increase from the 553,450 metric tons recorded during the same period last year.

The widening gap between rising production and slowing demand now places the poultry industry in a precarious position. Unless consumer spending improves or supply levels stabilize, local chicken raisers may continue operating under increasingly difficult market conditions.